Wednesday, May 18, 2011

2013 Mayoral Election Analysis: Number Crunching by The Giant

Note: This article was published last week and due to a technical glitch with blogger was finally restored yesterday.

While it is true that Dawn Zimmer did get the City Council Majority back by just winning two out of four City Council seats, it is also true that her allies directly received only 43% percent of the vote. It would seem that to the simple minded Zimmer haters out there that she is in big trouble in 2013 as her candidates were outmatched 57% to 43% percent but that doesn't tell the complete picture. People without college degrees should refrain form any numerical analysis as ghost writers on Hoboken 411 because they don't understand how the numbers work in Hoboken. All the little diminutive bushy eyebrowed Zimmer hater knows is how to spin an anti Zimmer negative yarn over and over again and day after day.

That percentage is misleading due to a couple of factors when it comes to 2013 Mayoral election results and here is why I think why. Number 1, about 100 2011 votes in Ward 2 were not for Beth Mason in Ward 2. I think Zimmer gets those in 2013. In the 5th Ward about 100 of Scott Delea's 2011 votes will also go to Zimmer and not to the old guard in 2013. Scott was a "wishy washy fake reformery guy" and probably plucked about 100 votes from Peter Cunningham.

I also made a very minor adjustment to Jen Giatinno in the 6th Ward as Zimmer will pick up at least 20 votes from the rent control advocates that voted for Nino instead. They will have nowhere else to go in all likelihood. With those adjustments that brings the vote percentages to 54% to 46% with Zimmer on the losing end but keep in mind that is only with a turnout of only 8000 votes. I think just about any political insider not choking on their own Zimmer hate induced bile will know that Zimmer loses in 2013 if only 8000 people show up . The old guard will get out their numbers as always and it will be game over.

For 2013, 8000 total votes in the Hoboken Mayoral race however is not very likely to happen.

I think 11,000 total votes is the most likely number of total votes based on past elections. 14,000 in November of 2009 was an anomaly since that was a hotly contested governors race. The key assumption to my analysis is that for every 1000 votes over 8000 voters in Hoboken, it breaks 667 to 333 for Zimmer or about 2-1. You can change that assumption around and get different results but I am going with that ratio since the old guard base is finite and the pool of any voters over the hard political core will come from people not in subsidized situations but instead pay taxes or rent at market rates. Those people will not be voting for people who make well over $120K per year to get a big fat subsidy in Church Towers for example. Higher voter turnout bodes well for Dawn Zimmer. Most people would agree with that that follow Hoboken politics closely.

10,000 total votes seems to be the break even plus point for Zimmer under these assumptions and the margins just get larger from there. Dawn Zimmer will have a majority for 18 months and will have to make progress on many fronts to maintain her popularity but if that holds up then a good turnout in 2013 of over 11,000 voters should give her the narrow margin of victory she needs to get over the top and be elected for a second term. The field will be crowded so I expect a runoff.  

Granted there are a lot of assumptions in this model but I am fairly confident that the following will go down:

1) 10,000 to 12,000 will likely vote in the 2013 Hoboken Mayoral Election, not 8,000. This is not a given.Voter apathy is a disease in Hoboken that fuels the Mason-Russo axis of corruption and gives them what power they have.

2) Dawn Zimmer would be the odds on favorite barring any political catastrophe in the next two years.

3) Zimmer's margin for error would not be very large unless the vote count approaches 13000 or 14000 and this is not likely.

4) The filed will likely be crowded with several old guard candidates throwing their hat in the ring. The fractured alliance that got Timmy his support in November of 2010 will not last until then. Too many egos and big swinging dicks with that crew for the top spot.

5) There will be a runoff between Dawn and the top vote getting candidate.

6) Beth Mason will likely not be in the runoff. She will not get the core old guard vote unless everyone else that covets the Mayor slot in the old guard defers to her. Not likely.

Of course if elections get moved to November turnout will definitely go up. That is also a distinct possibility.

Share your thoughts on my admittedly rudimentary analysis below: