Poll Wars - Hoboken Reporter gets nice bump in traffic over Police Layoff Poll

Update 9/1/2010:

Here are the final results of the Hoboken Journal Police Layoff Poll. Again, my take on this again based on the analysis of the traffic is that this is the result of a highly motivated level of Police Union support from outside of Hoboken to inflate the numbers here by a margin of over 2-1. The run-up on the poll over at the Hoboken Reporter pretty much indicates that but the margin there is almost 4-1. I wonder if we will see reference to the Hoboken Reporter Poll results at tonight's city council meeting by the PBA? Things that make you go hmmm.

Update 8/30/2010 7:40AM:

The Hoboken Reporter Poll on the Hoboken Police Layoffs has had an unprecedented run-up for a poll on their site over this weekend. I anticipated that the momentum would shift heavily in favor of the PBA once I saw the run up start to happen since that poll has a flaw that easily allows you to vote more than once.

In order to get a sense of where those votes where coming from, I created my own poll on this site and let it sit for a while before putting it out there on the NJ.com Hoboken Forum. As soon as I did The poll predictably went from the Mayor being ahead by a 2-1 margin to the PBA being ahead by that margin. Putting this poll on my website gave me the ability to make the following observation: the majority of votes on the poll are not coming from Hoboken.

Here are some samples of this below. I had an artificial spike in traffic over the weekend predominantly from outside of Hoboken....

Sample Users on 8/29/2010 - predominantly not from Hoboken

Results from the Hoboken Journal Poll shared with MSV as of 8-30-2010 7:40AM

So I am fairly confident that neither the Hoboken Reporter Poll or the Hoboken Journal poll reflect the sentiments of the Hoboken voter by any level of accuracy. It just shows that the Unions in NJ are showing a bit of solidarity and perhaps getting carpal tunnel syndrome as a result. I would like to thank all those who bounced over from NJ.com's old guard Hoboken forum to cast their vote and give me this insight. Thank you.

Update 8/29/2010: Here are the number for the Hoboken Reporter Layoff Poll as of this morning at 8:14AM, The article itself has over 6,000 views which is very very high for this website:

HR Layoff Poll numbers 8/29/2010 8:14AM

Here are some observations from a point in time yesterday about the poll:

From 8:57am to 2:44pm on 8/28/2010, Zimmer got 41 votes and the Police 263
From 2:44pm to 3:14pm on 8/28/2010 (a half hour), Zimmer got 2 votes and the Police got 216!

So, one could conclude fallaciously, that the people of Hoboken are more than 100 to 1 against Zimmer during this non-randomly selected sample half hour. If that is the case then why was there not the massive outcry when the layoffs were announced? The only conclusion one can come to with any reasonable amount of numerical literacy is that the poll has been rushed. It could be a combination of grass roots police unions or bots but you have to give a tip of the hat to either Swibinski or the Unions or both for a minor PR victory. However is anyone really fooled by this? Problem is based on this observation alone this poll is meaningless since the probability that a poll could have a sizable margin in favor of the Mayor at one point and then go over 100-1 in any point in time is near infinitesimal. Thus this poll simply does not reflect public sentiment accurately.

It would be accurate to say the police union is sufficiently motivated to make a statement by clicking on the Hoboken Reporter poll repeatedly given the flaw in the poll. I am confident in saying based on the results of my own poll after posting the link on NJ.com that many of the votes are not from Hoboken based on my web analysis tools. My poll does not allow multiple voting too easily and the margin in favor of the Police is in favor of them as expected by about 2-1, not 4-1 on the Hoboken Reporter. Before I put up the link it was in favor of the Mayor. So what does that prove. Nothing. that is my point. Polls are a way to drive traffic and interest but nothing more.

For reference poll at two different times yesterday where police pick up close to 200 votes and the Mayor only 2:

Poll at 2:54PM 8/28/2010

Poll at 3:18PM 8/28/2010

 Wow, holy statistically implausible wide margins Batman!

Original Post 8/28/2010: Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like a poll war is brewing over at the Hoboken Reporter. The Hoboken Reporter did a story on The PBA President's press release to the Mayor excoriating her for her decision to layoff 18 Police Officers and included a poll asking their readers who they felt was correct on the issue, the Mayor or the PBA Police Union. Initially, the poll swung heavily in favor of the Mayor and she held a sizable lead even with hundreds of responses. However, over time and after over 3,500 views of the article, the poll now swings heavily in favor of the Police Union. The poll at the Hudson Reporter does allow for duplicate votes and in Hudson County tradition I did vote twice just to see if would work.

It would appear a late night operation was underway to turn the poll results in the PBA's favor. Vision Media consultants is said to be on retainer and that company is run by none other the Paul Swibinski aka "The Minister of Propaganda" or as some on my website have alluded to as "Hudson County's very own Baghdad Bob".

Are these poll results a victory for the Police Union and a master stroke for chief propagandist Paul Swibinski? Or are they just a waste of time and an insult to intelligent people who know what is really going on? I wonder if the Police Union, after shelling out $18,000 for their own audit and another retainer for fairly expensive Paul Swibinski is hurting for cash in their Union fund? Hopefully, they didn't have to do a special assessment for dues from the Police men so a bunch of Hudson County political operatives could get a paycheck for clicking a computer over and over again. For some information on  Paul Swibinki's boiler room go to: http://www.visionmediapolitical.com/

Earlier this week I was pointed to a video by Bill Brennan on the North Hudson Fire and Rescue's patronage operation and Paul Swibinski won the "Big Tit Sucker of the Month" reward.

Paul Swibinski (right) with Staffer - Courtesy of MSV blog

To read my full writeup on this go to:
http://thehobokenjournal.blogspot.com/2010/08/ki-champthe-new-jersey-civil-circus.html

Below is the Hudson Reporter Poll in question with link to the article:

Hudson Reporter Article with Poll

The Poll early on when it first started

Poll at 8:57AM Saturday August 28, 2010

As a response, I have started my own version of the poll here. The technology behind Vizu polls does a much better job of preventing duplicate votes but as I have always said online polls are not a scientifically accurate method of sampling voters. For your amusement:

Online Surveys and Market Research

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Poll Wars - Hoboken Reporter gets nice bump in traffic over Police Layoff Poll