This letter represents Dean and not necessarily the opinion of this blog.
Dean Kemph's Take on the Runoff Election
"Darkest Before Dawn"
The mini-tsunami of anti-Mason sentiment which rumbled Dawn Zimmer ashore on election day seems clearly to have ebbed. Meanwhile, the swarm of ideologically-neutral self-protectionist opportunists (comprised primarily of city employees and their families, developers, and county politicos) which inevitably gravitates to and alights upon the next perceived power grid has finally found their new queen, and it ain't Dawn. While this was utterly predictable, it's happened with such a startlingly swift and complete rush that it mimics Beth's self-imposed demise. In numbers alone, this is a tough bloc to beat -- with the extra push that Raul Morales will now demand of Applied Housing, it may be impossible. Raul Jr. and Vinny Addeo, who had been running essentially independent campaigns from the start, made the expected bandwagon hop to the only available new home in town. Beth Mason, repudiation's exciting new poster-woman, blew it yet again. Given an opportunity to begin her reputation recovery with a wholehearted endorsement of Zimmer's entire slate, she instead chose Dawn to appease her suffering reformer supporters and her own two ill-chosen running mates, in what might be an attempt to limit Dawn's influence if she is able to get her own meagerly awaited Return To Relevance Tour off the ground. She is now in the bizarre position of supporting a mix of candidates who are cross-sniping at each other's qualifications. The HCDO, led by the classy Jerramiah "I don't know how I wound up drunk and naked on my porch" Healy, has rediscovered it's boy wonder with an enthusiastic cash-infused vigor. Even former Councilman/Water-Carrier Richard Delboccio left the comfort of his retirement porch long enough to endorse the emerging frontrunner in case there were any other city pension sources he had left inadvertently untapped. Of course, there are a few bright spots. Jim Vance, whose capacity to alienate is exceeded only by his capacity to annoy, is now apparently bellowing on behalf of Cammarano. If anyone has the ability to shift 500 votes away from his own candidate, it's Jim.
But the two reasons Dawn is in trouble are:
1. Peter Cammarano
You've got to hand it to this guy. He is smart, despite the barking insistence of the blogging Zimealots to the contrary. For anyone watching the Reporter or OLG/POG/QOL debates with no prior knowledge of either candidate, this is no contest. He appears articulate, decisive, logical, knowledgeable, sensible, emphatic, and has an uncanny mastery of facts and statistics (as he decides to present them.) He dodges, he feints, he jabs. His responses to predictable criticisms are thought out and effective, and he's glib enough to change direction on the fly. He has somehow managed to assimilate the entirety of Hoboken political history into his internal database. If he's using Hoboken as a stepping stone, he's certainly taken time to wade around in the stream. Going forward, there don't even seem to be that many policy differences, on the surface, between these two. If Peter was actually telling truths, it would be hard NOT to vote for him. But aye, thar's the rub.
2. Dawn Zimmer
Smile and the world smiles with you. Whine, and you whine alone. Dawn's uninspired, vague and humorless debate performances haven't given her the needed boost. And while my gut feeling is that claims of the absurdly-overly-demonized Michael Lenz' influence are overstated, I'm not so sure about Mr. Grossbard. The further one slides down the radius from the ever-protective inner circle, the more complaints of whiplash from supporters turning to hear him finish her sentences. And who came up with this "Roberts/Cammarano Administration" thing? I had a feeling that she'd beat that to death at awkward moments. Note to strategists: I know you're excited, but this (Bush/McCain) worked for Obama because he was a charismatic wordsmith with a fumbling opponent. Coming from Dawn, it sounds cranky and redundant, even though it's true. While the past certainly is a reliable indicator of how Cammarano's future moves might unfold, Dawn has been unable to get his former passivity on budget issues to resonate. MOVE ON! It may not be what she's best at, but Zimmer has to talk about Cammarano's impact on the future in detail, and do it with an earnest smile. Unless he unexpectedly jettisons the cronyism that spawned him, we all know that this guy is too beholden to too many interests to do much besides sit still, talk nicely, and continue to let it all crumble down around him. Dawn has a week to paint that picture. She's still fumbling for her brush.
Imagine what could have been. A few months ago, Cammarano was a minor candidate without a determinable constituency. Russo had concluded that he was not far enough removed from the memory of his father's excesses to make a credible citywide move. Beth had a fairly clear path which she could have cemented by restored alliances with Zimmer and Cunningham. And bingo! The reformers would have finally grabbed one. Changes would have been made. Accountability would be in vogue. And one day, yes, one day, your taxes would have gone down. The self-inflicted bullet hole in the toe of Mason's shoe may smoke for a generation.
Ultimately, Zimmer's sincerity and genuine right-mindedness are her best attributes. The more she's left alone, the more likely they are to appear in high relief. Let's hope it matters.
Best,
Dean ◦
