Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Mayoral Results and Analysis - Without Provisionals

It looks pretty good for the City Council slate of Dawn Zimmer that includes Carol Marsh, Ravi Bhalla and Dave Mello. There are 167 provisional ballots to be counted tomorrow. Ravi and Carol are mathematically in but Dave Mello should also be the third at large candidate to get in given his position where the count is today barring the provisionals break all for Vinny Addeo.

Here are the results for the Mayor's Race which include absentee ballots but not provisional.

Peter Cammarano leads by 67 votes currently not counting the provisionals and there is still the possibility of a recount depending on the margin of the provisionals. Here is some numerical analysis which brings me back to my college years as a mathematics major:

1) Dawn Zimmer won a total of 4 wards on the machines 1,2,5, and 6 or 66% of the wards and Peter Cammarano won two wards, 3 and 4 out of six wards total.

2) Dawn Zimmer won a total of 21 out 36 Districts on the machines or 58.3% of the districts and Peter Cammarano won 15 districts or 41.7%.

3) Dawn Zimmer won the total machine vote narrowly by 265 votes or 51.2% to 48.8% over Peter Cammarano.

4) Peter Cammarano won the absentee ballots by over a 3-1 margin and was up 332 votes. The percentages were 76.5% Peter vs. 23.5% Dawn on these votes.

5) Peter Cammarano is ahead in the total count not including provisionals by 67 votes. The current percentage is Peter 50.3% to Dawn's 49.7%.

6) There were a total of 110 under votes for Mayor. The biggest total was in the 4th Ward. Most of the undervotes were in districts that favored Peter Cammarano.

If this analysis proves anything, every vote counts. NJ.com is reporting that the election could possibly be decided tomorrow. That could be the case unless there is a law suit filed or there is a recount.


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